Re-Operation of Nuclear Power Plant is Dangerous?

Two years are about to pass since the Great East Japan Earthquake. Now, big electric power need for revival, therefore the argument on nuclear power plant re-operation is overheated.

Comparison with Other Power Plants of Safety

As for the nuclear power plant, the safety is regarded as questionable as there was an accident of the Fukushima nuclear power plant. When it separates from management of man by a certain way, meltdown is started when the worst. However, what kind of result is obtained in this as compared with other power generation methods? For example, many metal miners have died from coal extraction at coal-fired power generation. In the inside of a coal tunnel, the particulates of coal are dancing, and there is a risk of burning explosively by some rhythm. Even if it is not an accident from explosion a miner will be exposed to a dangerous state by spouted water or emitted gas on the underground. There was a coal mine accident in which 100 or more persons are killed in even in recent Japan repeatedly. Now, in the world, no less than 30,000 people pass away in the coal mine accident every year. Compared with this, the nuclear power plant has the track record outstanding in respect of the fatal accident, about tens of people who are the fire brigade member or the soldier were only directly killed in the Chernobyl accident. In a Chernobyl accident, since citizens' death increased by the rise of cancer cases, it is presumed that 4000 persons were killed in the accident. The accident has occurred more frequently than a nuclear power plant disaster, and immense damage has come not only out of coal but out of mining of oil at every time by sea pollution etc.

Economical Consideration of Nuclear Power Plant

It is said that the power costs of a nuclear power plant are often cheap, however is it truth? When power costs including construction costs, a maintenance cost, etc. of plant are compared, there is almost no difference of a nuclear power plant and thermal power generation. Power costs per kWh of nuclear power plant is about 8.9 yen, coal fire power is about 11.2 yen, hydraulic power is about 9.6 yen and LNG fire power is about 10.6 yen. And a nuclear power plant-related subsidy, such as a nuclear fuel cycle paid for a tax, is not contained in this trial calculation. In fact, the power costs of the nuclear power plant are large with such a tax. However, since the fuel cost itself becomes cheap, an electric power company wants to re-work the nuclear power plant in which power costs are lower than fire power. The situation where the messages of the nuclear power plant promotion by an electric power company "nuclear power generation is safe and clean" are sent in large quantities has been built through mass media. However, when abolition or the situation where it does not re-work continues a nuclear power plant, stagnation of Japanese economy may be caused. In addition to the shortage of electric power supplies, all the nuclear power plant stops of each electric power company caused increase in power rates, and have dealt a big blow to the industrial world. A little influence of a nuclear power plant stop is expanded not only to secondary industry, such as automotive manufacturing, but to primary industry, such as agriculture, and tertiary industry.

Overseas Relocation Makes Profits?

The concern over deindustrialization has become strong ignited by the Great East Japan Earthquake. First of all, why does a company establish a subsidiary in a foreign country?

Market Expansion Type Oversease Relocation

There are two patterns in the overseas expansion of Japanese companies. It is whether  relocate as a seller, or to relocate as a maker. Relocating as a seller, i.e., product, and build a sales base abroad. The high-growth era was the time when this just began. If cheap and good goods are made, it will attract attention also overseas, and will begin export via a trading company. And distributor is found abroad, when volume of sales is increased, an overseas subsidiary is established and expanded, and it is begun to make the product of specification for overseas. In such cases, it is mainly business and a marketing department that is engaged in foreign operations, and it is restricted to production-model products as a kind of goods. Therefore, Japanese people are only in an overseas branch as an administrator, and the center of corporate activity is established in Japan in many cases.

Factory Extensive Type Oversease Relocation

Another overseas expansion pattern is the advance as a maker, i.e., overseas factory deployment. Since part supplier shifts abroad to compensate for a major manufacturer doing overseas expansion, the companies may be made to shift abroad in the form that they are not willing. Or they tries to move a factory to overseas themself. Conversely, why doesn't it have a factory in Japan? To close to the place of production of materials, it is surely one reason. It is more rational than to spend transportation cost to carry materials to Japan for the steel industry, medicine business, etc. which are greatly dependent on materials by the material industry to manufacture there. On the contrary, there is a reason for building an overseas factory, since it is close to a consumer place. If cheap mass consumption goods are carried from Japan, they are inefficient. Making there and selling there is also one method. In this case, the product for Japanese markets will be made in Japan.

Reason for Avoiding Japan

Also besides having stated in the top, there is an enterprise with which is most elated at Japan's manufacturing industry, and most anxious about an overseas outflow. It is a high-value-added product which requires production technology, need to receives customer's noisy liking, and its specification is various. In Japan, overseas relocation of a factory has been large fashion since the depression of the 90s. It is a simple reason of since the manufacturing cost is cheap in almost cases. The cost of high-value-added product consists of a material cost, labor costs, and expenses. A labor-cost ratio is overwhelmingly large in it, therefore, a price changes in most proportion to the increase and decrease. It is also a risk of quality or a dead stock, and low wages of exchange.On the other hand, the phenomenon called Japanese revolution of the manufacturing industry has also occurred. Even though it is performing many manufacturing processes in foreign countries, it is because the metal parts which require high accuracy still must be manufactured in Japan. Furthermore, in order to meet various needs, carrying out the neighborhood of the spot of design to manufacture more is also thought as important.

Why Does a Strong Yen Receive Attentions?

Recently, the price movement of the exchange rate of the yen is frequently treated on a newspaper, television, etc. In this time, let’s consider the influence of strong yen and happening why.

What is Strong Yen?

The relative value over the other currency of the Japanese yen goes up, and a strong yen refers to the state where the Japanese yen of one unit can exchange for many other currencies. As the Japanese yen of the same amount of money, in the case of $1=80 yen, more dollars can be got and the direction of $1=100 yen will call it a strong yen. Conversely, in the case of 1 dollar = 100 yen, fewer dollars will be got, and it will call them a weak yen. In the two above-mentioned cases, if the price level of Las Vegas is the same, a strong yen make more shopping using the Japanese yen of the same frame, and with low yen, only shopping less than that will be made. It will become glad, if it is a strong yen when you go to travel abroad. Conversely, since same dollar is exchangeable for much Japanese yen if it is a weak yen, for the tourist from overseas, it becomes a desirable situation and the sightseeing industry of Japan profits.

Influence of Strong Yen

What is noticed most simply as influence of a strong yen is a bad influence to an exporter. When a strong yen occurs and the value of yen becomes high, it means that the price of Japanese goods rises for overseas people. As a result, Japanese goods become difficult to sell and export value decreases. The exporter whose sales decreased is pressed for cost reduction, and is connected to payroll reduction of the employees who work there. Furthermore, since it becomes the downward pressure of prices, it is worried also about the influence on deflation. On the other hand, what is the good influence by a strong yen? On the contrary, it is that the import price from overseas becomes cheap. For this reason, for the manufacturing industry which has imported and processed resources, materials, etc. from foreign country, the cost price can be held down low and it is connected to the profit rise. Moreover, also when Japanese companies march out to the United States and Asian nations, such as China, they can buy the land of the spot at a low price, or there are also merits, such as becoming easy to carry out company buyout. And so the phenomenon similar to this has occurred also in the tourist industry.

Cause of Strong Yen

There are two factors of the present sharp rise of the yen. One is that it is a weak dollar by the U.S. quantitative easing policy, and that became weak Euro by the crisis of Euro and worth of the Japanese yen went up relatively. Secondly, it is only Japan which does not demote worth of currency although every country in the world has demoted it from door to door. If Japanese potential growth rate to be 2%, it is necessary to increase money supply 4~5% every year, but it is not doing. Therefore, failure of the financial policy of the Bank of Japan has caused a strong yen.

Should nine articles revise or not?

Jiminto which won by the Lower House election to which voted on the December 12 pledges revising Article 9 of the constitution. In this week, let’s consider the right or wrong of a constitutional amendment.

 

Leading Reform Bill of Constitution

It is nine articles of a second chapter that are told to the general public. According to the reform bill of Jiminto which is the most leading now, although pacifism is maintained, the right of self-defense and maintenance of Defense Force is specified in the new constitution. Furthermore, regulation of territorial integrity is established newly, which would be conscious of the territorial problem which arose recently. In this reform bill, declaration of war was not accepted but only the conditions which specify motion of right of self-defense and collective self-defense is added newly. So, this revised constitution is still comparatively peaceful.

 

Right of Collective Self-Defense

For the preceding chapter, it was written that a reform bill had description which accepts the right of collective self-defense (Shu-danteki zieiken). Then, this right of collective self-defense which is often argues is the right to counterattack when the United States which is in alliance with Japan being attacked from a foreign country. This right is not to be accepted in the present constitutional interpretation. So unless the enemy country which attacked U.S. invades Japan, Japan cannot attack the enemy country. In Japan-US Security Treaty, it is said that the Self-Defense Forces cooperate with the U.S. Forces, and it fights when the attack from a foreign country to Japan occurs, and even when the United States receives an attack, Japan haves to do nothing. Instead, Japan provides financial support to the bases, that is said commonly Omoiyari Yosan. However, although there are also many people who think "it is naturally protected by the United States because much money is paid and land is also offered" among the latest Japanese, is that right sure enough?

 

Argument on Revision                                                           

There are other opinion which is opposed to revision, Article 9 of the constitution should be proud of in the world and ought not to revise, it has a possibility that the draft system may revive, and army should be abandoned for peace. The following counterarguments are carried out to this opinion. Japan has some territorial problems, and it works also with neither China nor South Korea, but North Korea is a quite dangerous country. While there are such neighboring countries, it is very difficult to keep the present constitution. Moreover, to Japan abandons an army is not realistic since there is a possibility that the Japan-United States Security Treaty may be canceled, or that since even Switzerland of a permanently neutral state possesses the mighty army. Furthermore, there is the article which draft is forbidden in a draft of Jiminto. Under the present circumstances, it is unthinkable that the draft is performed. Thus, although it is the nine-article revision problem of arguing about various sides, you should cautious of a future trend and when referendum is performed towards revision if compelled, it is important that he thinks earnestly and has a firm opinion.

 

 

Consumption Tax Increase is Necessity?

For a while before, it discussed for the right or wrong of consumption tax increase in parliament, and many Media also treated. Now, although this policy is decided, let’s think this problem this week.

Influence on Economy

      Minshuto was advancing the proposal which increase tax in April, 2014 8%, and made into 10% in October, 2015. Although it is thought that it becomes about 13 trillion yen tax revenue increases if a consumption tax is raised 5%, but it makes a big impact of Japanese economy. So considering the budget deficit exceeding 1 quadrillion yen of Japan, the increase of income obtained by tax increase is lost only by the interest rates of a national bond going up. The standard household that one of the husband and wife works, the annual income is 5 million yen and two children are is estimated disposable income loses in weight about 310,000 yen in the increase of a burden.

Consumption Tax and Japanese Finances

      It is these days that Greece did fiscal bankruptcy, but doesn't this happen even in Japan? Japan's annual budget deficit is large and the ratio for GDP has become 189% and the largest in the world. Greece is somewhat large grades compared with other advanced nations at 114%.The price of the tax revenues of the Japanese government is about 40 trillion yen. In other hand, governmental finances exceed 90 trillion yen. The expenditure which can be paid for the inner tax revenues is only below half of government expenditure. Other most will be provided with the debt. Therefore, by increasing the consumption tax which occupies many of tax revenues, we have to perform the finances for which it does not depend on a debt. However, when growth of Japanese economy stops and carries out the worst retreat by increasing taxes, it is said that substantial tax revenues doesn’t increase. In order to set off against a 50 trillion yen debt even if there is 2 trillion yen increase of income at 1% as the government has announced, we have to increase no less than 25%.

Consumption Tax of Each Country

      It is said that there are few consumption tax rates of Japan compared with each country. In fact, many countries, U.S., U.K., Italy, German, Netherlands, and Ireland are its tax rates are about 20%. However, the problem is spending a tax also on 10 million yen or more Ferrari which a rich person also buys with a hobby and the 100 yen radish which the grandma of a pension life buys uniformly in Japan. Therefore, in most advanced nations, consumption tax rates were not made uniform, but tax rates are divided into necessary goods, such as food, and not so. Among countries, such as Britain, Ireland, Mexico, and Australia, the consumption tax of food is set as zero. Furthermore, it is only Japan that has applied the consumption tax even to circulation, distribution and manufacture, in the other hand, overseas consumption tax is applied only in the form of finished goods (end product). As a result, Japanese are having forced many burdens than Irish where consumption taxes are 21%.

TPP Participation is Right?

Recently, whether Japan joins the TPP is discussed.
Today, let’s think how our life change if Japan join it.

 What is TPP?

      TPP is abbreviation of trans pacific partnership. The meaning is to cooperation in the pacific countries related economic and military strategy-like. For example, to abolish customs duty, Communalization of medical license, unification of food inspection of quality, etc. So TPP is agreement that enables it to come and go freely across the border, and it unifies the rule and structure about service, food safety and medical treatment, employment, investment, etc. It joins 4 countries, New Zealand, singer pole, Chili, Brunei, and 5 country shows intension of participation, UK, Peru, Malaysia, Australia, and Vietnam.

 

Influence of the Economy

     The three government organizations, Cabinet Office, the Ministry of Agriculture-Forestry-Fisheries, and the Ministry of Economy-Trade-Industry, made the trial calculation of influence when Japan participate in TPP, respectively. Cabinet Office is taking out the optimistic view that GDP increases by 2,400~3,200 billion yen, if Japan participates in TPP. On the other hand, the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries said that it becomes very big minus to Japan participate it. Since cheap agricultural products are imported in large quantities, many of Japanese farmhouses stop agriculture, and agricultural-related GDP may decrease by no less than 4,100 billion yen, and may become a 7,900 billion yen loss with whole GDP. Furthermore, 3,400,000 people's employment is lost, and it is expected that a food self-sufficiency rate also falls from 40% to 14%. Ministry of Economy-Trade-Industry says to join TPP becomes profits and not only GDP but also employment lost no less than 812,000 persons. Thus, if three government organizations have drawn the conclusion which is completely different, increasingly whether it is better to participate in TPP.

 

The Merit and Demerit of TPP

     There are many concrete merits and demerits which are acquired because Japan participates in TPP. For example, as a merit, the prices of meat or rice may become cheap by competition with overseas countries, or an exporter advances to overseas　become easily, and agricultural workers may move to industry because a farm population decreases sharply and the productivity of Japan may improve sharply. On the other hand as a demerit, there is a possibility that a domestic farmhouse may be pressed, deflation may progress because the prices of domestic goods fall rapidly by competition with an import, and the United States may put political pressure for TPP on entrance. In fact, called for sharp reduction of the customs duty of agricultural products, and reexamination of privatization of the postal service.

 

The conclusion of a TPP problem

     Thus, possibility of exerting a serious blow on a country, or big profits may be yielded by participating in TPP. An important thing is to perform the best judgment, after avoiding making a considering firmly conclusion without often arguing. Especially, in the present state, there are many disadvantageous demerits for Japan, we should consider carefully the argument of whether to participate, after asking for the improvement.